John McCain will reportedly stop employing staff, airing ads, and sending mailers in Michigan, instead relocating resources to Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida. Since McCain is taking Michigan tentatively out of his win column, let's take a closer look at the electoral map. We hear all about national polls, but those don't matter on November 4.
To see how the toss up states looked as of yesterday, and for some analysis of which states each candidate needs,
As of yesterday this is how the candidates' chances looked according to Real Clear Politics: New Mexico: Obama +5; North Carolina Obama +3; Obama +3; Missouri Obama +1 Florida: Obama +3 ; Virginia: McCain +3; Indiana: McCain +1; Michigan: Obama +10; Nevada: Obama +1 ; Ohio McCain +1 ; Minnesota: Obama +11 Pennsylvania: Obama +9; Obama +9; New Hampshire: Obama +10 .
Obviously a million things could happen before November 4. The map indicates that while McCain needs to pick up all the Bush states, besides maybe New Mexico and Nevada, Obama has more options to get to 270. Obama can lose Ohio and Florida, if he picks up New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa. If McCain loses Florida, he has to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania. If McCain wins Indiana and Missouri, he still needs to win Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Minnesota to get to 270. If McCain loses Minnesota, McCain needs Nevada and New Hampshire to tie (gasp!!!) Obama at 269. While all these scenarios can make your head spin, imagine what a tie would be like!!