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McCain Swings Out of Michigan: How Does the Map Look?

John McCain will reportedly stop employing staff, airing ads, and sending mailers in Michigan, instead relocating resources to Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida. Since McCain is taking Michigan tentatively out of his win column, let's take a closer look at the electoral map. We hear all about national polls, but those don't matter on November 4.

To see how the toss up states looked as of yesterday, and for some analysis of which states each candidate needs,

.

As of yesterday this is how the candidates' chances looked according to Real Clear Politics: New Mexico: Obama +5; North Carolina Obama +3; Obama +3; Missouri Obama +1 Florida: Obama +3 ; Virginia: McCain +3; Indiana: McCain +1; Michigan: Obama +10; Nevada: Obama +1 ; Ohio McCain +1 ; Minnesota: Obama +11 Pennsylvania: Obama +9; Obama +9; New Hampshire: Obama +10 .

Obviously a million things could happen before November 4. The map indicates that while McCain needs to pick up all the Bush states, besides maybe New Mexico and Nevada, Obama has more options to get to 270. Obama can lose Ohio and Florida, if he picks up New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa. If McCain loses Florida, he has to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania. If McCain wins Indiana and Missouri, he still needs to win Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Minnesota to get to 270. If McCain loses Minnesota, McCain needs Nevada and New Hampshire to tie (gasp!!!) Obama at 269. While all these scenarios can make your head spin, imagine what a tie would be like!!

Source

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HeatherStJoeMI HeatherStJoeMI 7 years
That will be interesting !!!!! I hope he really does decide he doesn't want Michigan !!!! It's not his brightest idea but ..... I'm not voting for McCain anyway.
maddiefish maddiefish 7 years
Gobama :D
True-Song True-Song 7 years
I'm a fan of fivethirtyeight.com. They compile and crunch numbers on hundreds of polls. It's really kind of amazing.
hausfrau hausfrau 7 years
thats why i like the Yahoo dashboard, it has historical poll info but more current info too, it just updates more
hausfrau hausfrau 7 years
i think this map was out of date 2 days after printing
True-Song True-Song 7 years
Oh, I see the article has McCain up by one in Ohio, maybe this is old? I still don't see why Minnesota is grey if he's ahead by 10, same with New Hampshire.
hausfrau hausfrau 7 years
but at the time of the map's printing that might not have been so
True-Song True-Song 7 years
but haus, aren't Pennsylvania and Colorado the same, swing states that were red the last two go rounds? But they're blue on the map since Obama is leading in the polls there, so it seems like Ohio should be two since he is, I think, like eight points up.
hausfrau hausfrau 7 years
Ohio is a battleground state and in the map it is grey because of it. Ohio went for Bush both times in 2000 and 2004.
sw33tlovin sw33tlovin 7 years
some of the leaning states are really surprising to me. PA and NJ?!?! and florida is really getting on my nerves.
Misalady Misalady 7 years
Washington state is "leaning"? Are you kidding? Aren't we always blue?
kastarte2 kastarte2 7 years
I don't care what the polls say. Almost any state could switch colors in the weeks to come. Get ready for an October surprise! :scared:
liliblu liliblu 7 years
It feels so good to VA in play. My more conservative neighbor has been leaning purple for a while now. MD is always true blue.
True-Song True-Song 7 years
I don't think so, haus, because Ohio is typically a battleground state, and it is blue, same with Penn. and Mich.
hausfrau hausfrau 7 years
TS - I think grey means battleground states in general, those that don't consistently vote one way or the other and have the potential to go either way. Someone might be up 10 pts today, but tomorrow that could be another story... if you check out Yahoo! Politics they have a political dashboard thats pretty cool because you can select a state and a day to see what the poll was for that day... there are some states where someone was up 10pts last week and now its neck and neck.
wackdoodle wackdoodle 7 years
Toss Up states sound so pervy. I like it.
True-Song True-Song 7 years
I don't get the numbers. Why is Minn. grey if Obama is up by 11 points? I love fivethirtyeight.com
stephley stephley 7 years
Just guessing Haus, but if I work on a campaign and it looks like we're losing an important state, I want to make sure it looks like someone else's fault - so I might suggest to a reporter that someone I'm working with is in panic mode. It's not as if these guys move as a group from campaign to campaign, in either party.
CaterpillarGirl CaterpillarGirl 7 years
<img src="http://ts3.images.live.com/images/thumbnail.aspx?q=2662195601214&id=161d67d438ff768c1b180992d25d1c1f">
CYL CYL 7 years
i think all the states should be purple :D
hausfrau hausfrau 7 years
If thats the case then why would the McCain camp paint it as panic?
stephley stephley 7 years
Secret meetings leak like sieves Haus, everybody wants to make sure their take on things gets out.
em1282 em1282 7 years
"smarmy smiley tan MF'er":rotfl:
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