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Emmy Breakdown: Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

In the weeks leading up to the 2007 Primetime Emmy Awards, I'll be looking at the nominees in some major categories and trying to predict who's most likely to win in these Emmy Breakdowns. Up today: Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series.

Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock") — Baldwin surprised a lot of people by winning a Golden Globe in January, but that win and this nomination both were well-deserved. "30 Rock" eventually found its footing as an ensemble show, but for a large part of the season, Baldwin was the man responsible for making it funny, and he did so with ease and classic deadpan wit. The rest of the show has grown up around Baldwin, but I still don't think "30 Rock" could work without him. My only concern about his chances: Do enough people watch "30 Rock" to want to see him win? Chance of winning: Moderate to high.

Steve Carell ("The Office") — Some "Office" fans might love the Jim and Pam storyline; others might love Dwight's antics. But when it comes down to it, "The Office" is still a show about Michael Scott, and that has everything to do with Steve Carell. He's put monumental effort into making an unlikable character seem sympathetic, good-intentioned and sometimes even sweet. The writing for Michael occasionally was too over-the-top or inappropriate this year, but Carell deserves credit for reigning his character in most of the time. He's been nominated before, but I think this might be his year to take home the trophy. Chance of winning: High.

Three more actors and their chances, so

Ricky Gervais ("Extras") — I was shocked to see Gervais nominated here — not because he shouldn't have gotten the honor but because "Extras" was such a niche show. I'm not sure Gervais was ever as good at playing Andy Millman as he was as playing David Brent on "The Office," but he certainly has his fans. I doubt they're enough to send him home with a win, but then again, he could be the category's surprise spoiler. Chance of winning: Moderate to low.

Tony Shalhoub ("Monk") — Shalhoub is funny and all, but he's won three times in this category in the past four years, and I think it would be wise to reward someone else this time around. Really, nothing against him, but I think "Monk" and Shalhoub have gotten their due, and it's time to move on. It's pretty obvious how much voters love him, though, so he can't be counted out. Chance of winning: Moderate.

Charlie Sheen ("Two and a Half Men") — Again, I plead ignorance on "Two and a Half Men," though I will say that the few times I've seen it, I've found Sheen to be one of the least-funny things about it. I don't mean to be snarky, but I would love for someone who watches the show to explain Sheen's appeal to me; I just don't see it. I don't think he's the strongest actor in the category, regardless, and I wonder if he will be one of those perennial nominees who never breaks through for a win until his show's final season. Chance of winning: Moderate.

Baldwin and Carell photo Source
Shalhoub photo Source
Gervais photo Source
Sheen photo courtesy of CBS

krock19 krock19 10 years
I just wish someone could explain to me how Tony Shaloub and/or Charlie Sheen are nominated. Especially Charlie Sheen....
SexyNeverLeft78 SexyNeverLeft78 10 years
Steve hands down. But I wouldn't mind Alec running either. I thought his performance was brilliant.
sorano916 sorano916 10 years
Once again, tapes will play apart in this... at moment, it's a toss up between Baldwin, Carell, and Shalhoub. Tony has the upper hand due to a) his show is an hour long and b) it's not an ensemble-type show like 30 Rock or The Office. MONK is about Monk. All three have good tapes, but Tony's is the better one in terms of comedic performances... I wouldn't be surprised if he took home another, but that being said, I would love for Steve to take it. :)
MamaD MamaD 10 years
I can't stand Alec Baldwin...I've never seen what most people see. But I love Steve Carell, Ricky Gervais, and Charlie Sheen!! They are all great in their roles!!!!! Not a fan of Tony Shalhoub.
demeter demeter 10 years
I dont even watch his show but Ricky Gervais! That man is brilliant!
xo_verity xo_verity 10 years
Steve has to win!
mellafe mellafe 10 years
Lindsb Lindsb 10 years
How could Steve not win?
Alleigh Alleigh 10 years
I love Alec Baldwin in 30 Rock...he is so spot on!
lucy76 lucy76 10 years
I'd be happy for either Steve Carell or Alec Baldwin, but I'd be ecstactic for Ricky Gervais. I really hope Sheen or Shaloub don't win. I just don't find their shows that funny.
Maria-M Maria-M 10 years
Steve Carell!!!
badhabit badhabit 10 years
My vote is for Alec Baldwin. He is just so dead on in 30 Rock. I can't imagine anyone else playing that role even remotely as good. Having said that I do agree with Buzz's thoughts on Steve Carrell. It takes a special actor to make that character sympathetic which Carrell does so well. Also Ricky Gervais is hilarious in Extras. So either of them should win. I agree Monk has gotten enough awards and Charlie Sheen...yuck. That show is just not funny at all. I've only seen a few episodes but the jokes are so obvious.
Linda-McP Linda-McP 10 years
As much as I love Tony Shalhoub as Monk, I hope that Steve Carell takes top honors this year. I'm with you on Charlie Sheen and Two and a Half Men; I just don't understand the appeal of the show.
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