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Emmy Breakdown: Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

In the weeks leading up to the 2007 Primetime Emmy Awards, I'll be looking at the nominees in some major categories and trying to predict who's most likely to win in these Emmy Breakdowns. Up today: Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series.

America Ferrera ("Ugly Betty") — This has been Ferrera's year. She already has a Golden Globe and a Screen Actors Guild award, and I can't see her momentum stopping anytime soon. I don't think Ferrera is necessarily the funniest actress on this very funny ensemble show, but she is definitely its heart. She's taken a character who could have been a caricature and made her into a lovable role model, and she definitely deserves credit for that. Chance of winning: High.

Tina Fey ("30 Rock") — My admiration for Fey is well-documented, and I think "30 Rock" really turned itself around when Fey figured out how best to play her character, the geeky, well-intentioned, often-bumbling Liz Lemon. Oddly, though, I don't think of "30 Rock" as her show from an acting perspective; she's there to be the straight woman for Alec Baldwin's Jack and Tracy Morgan's Tracy, and it only seemed to be at the end of the season that she was really carrying episodes alone. I'm glad to see her nominated, but I think it will take another season or two for her to win. Chance of winning: Low to moderate.

Three more, so

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Felicity Huffman ("Desperate Housewives") — This is a tough one. You already know why I love her, and I think she's the best "Desperate Housewives" actress by far. Her performances are often deep, emotional and moving — and that's exactly the problem I have with assessing her chances here. Will voters value straight-up humor over complex and nuanced performances like Huffman's? I'm really not sure, though Huffman's previous win in 2004 suggests that the Emmys do appreciate her work. Chance of winning: Moderate.

Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("The New Adventures of Old Christine") — This is the only show on this list that I don't watch routinely, so I'll admit I can't speak intelligently about her work relative to the others'. But she is the defending champion (her second Emmy — she also won one for "Seinfeld" back in the day), and she has a ton of recognition among voters. She's also on the most traditional show nominated in this category, and she could benefit from doing the kind of work that most people think of when they hear the word "comedy." Chance of winning: Moderate.

Mary-Louise Parker ("Weeds") — With all the good buzz around "Weeds" right now, I'd say Parker would be the front-runner for this honor if not for two things: 1) America Ferrera and 2) the Felicity Huffman issue. Like Huffman, Parker often does work on "Weeds" that is at least as dramatic as comedic. But I'm not sure where or how her particular brand of comedy will fit into this year's awards. Chance of winning: Moderate to high.

Ferrera and Huffman photos copyright 2007 ABC, Inc.
Parker photo courtesy of Showtime
Fey photo Source
Louis-Dreyfus photo courtesy of CBS

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beingtazim beingtazim 9 years
america should win. :D
mellafe mellafe 9 years
The only show I watch (of these) is Old Christine, and I was never a fan of Sanfield, but JLD is AMAZING in this newish show. She really is. She cracks me up. I do have a soft spot of Mary-Louise Parker, so I'd like to see her win.
lilv lilv 9 years
i LOVE ugly betty America should win
gruaig_rua gruaig_rua 9 years
I've only seen UB and DH so my vote goes to America
RCLdesigngirl RCLdesigngirl 9 years
Much as I love America Ferrera and Julia L-D....My vote is heartily for MLP!!!! Weeds is hilarious and she definitely carved out a hell of a performance last season. I'm hoping for Elizabeth Perkins and MLP twofers!!!!!
liz26111 liz26111 9 years
It will be America. I do not want her to win but she is the "it" girl so it will be hers.
Lindsb Lindsb 9 years
I really love JLD - so funny. Although, I think the popularity of the other shows will outshine her on Emmy night..
redfiretruck redfiretruck 9 years
I'm also rooting for MLP. She so deserves it!
WhatTheFrockBlog WhatTheFrockBlog 9 years
Out of all these shows, I only watch "Weeds" so I'm not objective, but GO, MLP, GO!!!
Lorelei-Spirit Lorelei-Spirit 9 years
My vote would go to ML Parker.
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