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Emmy Breakdown: Outstanding Drama Series

In the weeks leading up to the 2007 Primetime Emmy Awards, I've been looking at the nominees in some major categories and trying to predict who's most likely to win in these Emmy Breakdowns. Today, it's time for my final breakdown: Outstanding Drama Series.

"Boston Legal" — I've said it before and now I'll say it again: It baffles me that "Boston Legal" got nominated instead of "Friday Night Lights" — or, heck, even instead of "Lost," which ended its season on such a high note. It's a fine show, but it's not one of the five best dramas on TV. But this is about who will win, not who should win, and the fact that "Boston Legal" got four major nominations this year tells me that voters really like it. Still, I think it will only end up in the middle of this pack, mostly thanks to a certain mobster drama. Chance of winning: Low to moderate.

"Grey's Anatomy" — "Grey's" had some wonderful highs last year, and I still count the "Six Days" episodes (which revolve around George's father's illness) and "From a Whisper to a Scream" (in which Cristina tells the Chief about Burke's tremor) among the best dramatic TV I saw all season. On the other hand, there was the ferry arc, which ended with such a whimper that it almost made me give up on "Grey's" altogether. If the show pulls itself together, it can and should win an Emmy one day — but not this year. Chance of winning: Moderate.

For the other three nominees and their chances,

"Heroes" — "Heroes" jumped two major hurdles just to get nominated in this category: the bias against new series, and the bias against sci fi. That means something for this series, and if the quality stays high in its next season(s), it's a show I see getting an Emmy one day based on the strength of the ensemble. But this year would be too much, too soon. Chance of winning: Low.

"House" — I'm glad to see "House" nominated in this category. Until I started watching the series closely last year to recap it for Buzz, I'd always thought of it as just Hugh Laurie's show; now I see what the other cast members bring to it and how well the series as a whole is put together. I'm just not sure this season had the sort of big, blockbuster episodes it would need to contend for the win right now. Better to root for Laurie to win the acting award, I think. Chance of winning: Low to moderate.

"The Sopranos" — And finally, we've reached the elephant in the room. Does anyone really think there's any way this award won't go to "The Sopranos"? No matter how much ratings dropped off in the last season, and no matter how unsatisfied some people were with the way the series ended, this series had a massive impact on American television. It's only won the outstanding series award once before, but I would be beyond shocked if it didn't get recognized this one last time. Chance of winning: High.

"Boston Legal" and "Grey's Anatomy" photos copyright 2007 ABC, Inc.
"The Sopranos" photo courtesy of HBO
"House" photo Source
"Heroes" photo Source

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