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Emmy Breakdown: Supporting Actress in a Drama

In the weeks leading up to the 2007 Primetime Emmy Awards, I'll be looking at the nominees in some major categories and trying to predict who's most likely to win in these Emmy Breakdowns. Up today: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series.

Lorraine Bracco ("The Sopranos") — Bracco has been nominated three times before this, all three in the lead actress category. Her Dr. Melfi didn't get as much screen time this season as in years past, but she's been a strong and consistent presence on the show, and voters clearly want to reward her work in some way. Plus, as I've mentioned, nobody loves series endings more than the Emmys. I have a feeling this category is all Bracco's. Chance of winning: High.

Rachel Griffiths ("Brothers & Sisters") — Griffiths is a favorite actress of mine, and the episode she submitted — in which she finds out about her husband kissing her half-sister — is probably her best work of the season. Even so, "Brothers & Sisters" is such an ensemble show that it's hard to recognize just one standout performer. Chance of winning: Low.

Four more great actresses, so

Katherine Heigl ("Grey's Anatomy") — I may be the world's last fan of both Heigl and Izzie, but I thought her work this season was exceptional — even when things veered into painful "Gizzie" territory. Her submitted episode, the season premiere that finds her lying on the bathroom floor in her prom dress, is vivid to me even now. But she's one of three strong "Grey's" actresses nominated in this category, and I'm not sure she's the best of them. Chance of winning: Moderate.

Sandra Oh ("Grey's Anatomy") — Oh was responsible for two stunningly memorable moments from this season of "Grey's": Cristina's crisis over whether to tell or not to tell the chief about Burke's tremor, and her emotional breakdown after Burke leaves her at the altar. The former makes for a fine submission episode; the latter, I'd imagine, is still stuck in many voters' minds. If any of the "Grey's" women has a chance at taking the category, I think it's Oh. Chance of winning: Moderate to high.

Aida Turturro ("The Sopranos") — Turturro, who's been nominated once previously, has the benefit of the post-"Sopranos" outpouring of goodwill toward her show as well as several years of notable performances behind her. Still, I think that will benefit Bracco more than it will benefit her, and if a "Sopranos" actress takes the category, I'd be shocked if it were Turturro. Chance of winning: Low to moderate.

Chandra Wilson ("Grey's Anatomy") — I've long said that Wilson deserves more notice for the tough-yet-tender qualities she's brought to Dr. Bailey, the mother hen of the intern flock. Her Screen Actors Guild award is one big step, and this nomination is another. But Bailey is, for better or worse, still mostly a background character. The episode she submitted, in which a male doctor suggests that Bailey has let things get out of hand with her interns because she had a child, is some of Wilson's best work, but I'm not sure it will be enough to get her a victory over others with larger parts and more name recognition. Chance of winning: Low to moderate.

Griffiths, Heigl, Oh and Wilson photos copyright 2007 ABC, Inc.
Bracco and Turturro photos Source

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