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Number of Democrats Drops in July & Obama Loses 9 Points

Number of Democrats Drops in July & Obama Loses 9 Points

Despite what the Germans might lead us to believe, last month the number of Democrats fell for the first time since January, hitting a number below 41 percent. Judging from the numbers of Democrats reaching back to 2004, is the Dems big peak behind them? The number of Republicans remained constant for the fourth straight month.

Meanwhile, despite the mixed response from the ads the McCain campaign released last week, they seem to have done the trick: Obama lost a nine percentage-point advantage, leaving the candidates in a dead heat over the weekend, with the game tied at 44-all. Obama derided the ads on Saturday but stopped short of saying they were racist. He said, "In no way do I think John McCain's campaign was racist. I think they are cynical. Their team is good at creating distractions and engaging in negative attacks."

Despite the seemingly negative reaction to the ads, are they responsible for the drop for Obama? Do these kinds of ads work whether people say they like them or not?


Join The Conversation
Roarman Roarman 9 years
Unless Obama morphs into a George Bush type republican(or McCain becomes someone completely opposite of who he is now), Obama's got my vote in November. It doesn't matter what happens in the debates for me. I ignore these stupid, immature ads.
melizzle melizzle 9 years
Dare I say it and risk a comment lashing? Sure... could the Obama celebrity fan club be in a downward spiral? It's too soon to make these kinds of calls... I think the debates will help iron out a lot.
Jillness Jillness 9 years
...not to mention the fact that McCain has been running around incorrectly stating that Obama will increase "your" taxes...when that only applies to 5% of the wealthiest people in our country. McCain doesn't want to admit that low and middle class Americans will get a tax CUT under Obama's plan.
Jillness Jillness 9 years
I think Obama is fighting back against McCain's attacks. Intelligent ads about pressing issues doesn't get as much national media coverage as juvenile ads with Britney, Paris, and Moses. McCain paid to have those ads show only 12 times. They were run thousands of times on national news and internet. I think the polls proved to be pretty off during primary season, so they aren't to be relied on now. And for someone to say that people are finding out about the "real Obama" now, implies that they didn't know Obama's positions to begin with. That is a big assumption to make about people you don't know. On a side note, Obama is carrying the "white low income worker" 2 to 1 against McCain. What does that tell you?
jenintx jenintx 9 years
I didn't mean to imply that Hillary Clinton had anything to do with Obama's numbers dropping, Harmony. I was just comparing the primaries and how Obama conducted his campaign then with what's going on now. Sorry for the implication; I really didn't mean it that way.
stephley stephley 9 years
The good thing about the dead heat is that neither side can get overconfident.
gitsie123 gitsie123 9 years
I really don't take polls too seriously. I made that mistake with the last election.
harmonyfrance harmonyfrance 9 years
Obama's favorability rating dropping 9 points this week has nothing to do with Hillary Clinton.
jenintx jenintx 9 years
I'm also not sure if it has anything to do with learning who the "real" Obama is, either. HIllary Clinton threw a lot of negative stuff Obama's way; some true, some not, I'm sure. And I believe it ultimately hurt him in the primaries, especially since he chose not to fight fire with fire and push a lot of negativity back her way. On one hand, I kinda would like to see Obama stick up for himself more and call out some of the blatant lies and convenient twisting of the "truths;" but on the other hand, the fact that he hasn't (especially with Clinton) lowered himself (or at least not too often) to those kinds of tactics is one of the reasons I "drank the kool aid" (as I'm so often told here in my lovely Texas). I like that he's opted to run a different kind of campaign, and fighting back in those kinds of ways would ruin that for me.
jenintx jenintx 9 years
I don't think it's been nine points in one week...Most polls (even the poll of polls) have been saying somewhere between 1-4 percent lead for Obama over the past month or so. Maybe nine points from when Obama won the nomination.
cmill38 cmill38 9 years
blondie01 i'm totally with you.
popgoestheworld popgoestheworld 9 years
9 points in 1 week? That seems awfully extreme. As for sources it just says: "a national poll". Not sure what that means exactly. The article does do a nice job of summarizing all the recent attack pieces McCain has run against Obama. I guess they figured playing nice wasn't working.
Bettyjane Bettyjane 9 years
I don't take those polls seriously. How many have actually participated in them? They are not very reliable indicator about how people are feeling. The results depend on so many different factors, take it with a grain of salt. :)
True-Song True-Song 9 years
Also, it's Obama's birthday today! That should give him a bump, right?
Fo-show317771 Fo-show317771 9 years
Right Stephley....its as if hes hanging on to votes by the skin of his teeth!
stephley stephley 9 years
The numbers also mean that McCain, a known entity, a war hero who at times has enjoyed bipartisan popularity since the 1980s, can't pull ahead from the relative newcomer.
True-Song True-Song 9 years
The polls will fluctuate, no biggie. There's still a lot of time left.
hypnoticmix hypnoticmix 9 years
You know in a strange way the premise that he is not your usual Washington power player is clearly illustrated in his pit falls. It could be a simple matter of the fact that he is playing the game in a structure that grates across his intent and while learning how to play the game he is also begrudgingly being transformed. Trying to hold on to what he wants to represent but at the same time feeling the need to yield. The constituency however only see's the exteranl effects not the inner turmoil. It is a position I do not envy.
globbot globbot 9 years
following the election overseas was hilarious, especially if you just depend on local media. Obama and McCain barely received any coverage, the most went to Hillary. And when they did mention Hillary, it was "Fomer US President, Bill Clinton's wife, Hillary Clinton, ...", accompanied by one of those pictures where Hillary is smiling and looking really creepy. Considering that I only read one newspaper with election coverage, the above may not be entirely true.
blondie01 blondie01 9 years
this was inevitable. I don't think its the doing of Mccain's ads though. I think Americans are finally learning about who Obama really is and therefore are no longer supporting him. He was never really able to seal the deal for the democratic nom. until the last moment with Hillary, and he won't be able to do it with Mccain.
hypnoticmix hypnoticmix 9 years
This is an election that will definitely be won or lost in the debates. Sen. Obama needs to tighten up the ranks and stop falling through the cracks of his campaigns own ill conceived strategies.
harmonyfrance harmonyfrance 9 years
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