What's at Stake Now That Justice Anthony Kennedy Is Retiring From the Supreme Court

On June 27, 81-year-old Justice Anthony Kennedy announced that he plans to retire from the Supreme Court this Summer. The news instantly sparked speculation and concern in Washington DC — and across the nation. Kennedy, who is considered conservative — but who also often sides with the liberal justices on the court — has often swayed the court's decision with his vote, especially on important social issues. In stepping down, he has cleared the path for President Donald Trump to nominate his replacement. Trump, who already appointed Justice Neil Gorsuch to the high court, has promised his picks will be staunchly conservative and vowed to move quickly to replace Kennedy. What could this mean for key issues such as reproductive rights and marriage equality? Here is what you need to know about the stakes of Kennedy's decision.

Justice Kennedy has often been the swing vote on key issues. Although he was appointed by Ronald Reagan, he tends to side with the more liberal judges on important matters. His vote was essential for enabling the national legalization of same-sex marriage in 2015, and he recently sided with a 6-3 majority on restricting the implementation of Trump's travel ban against several primarily Muslim countries in 2017.

On the other hand, Justice Gorsuch — whom Trump nominated in 2017 to replace Justice Antonin Scalia — is a staunch conservative who has sided with the most right-leaning judges on the court with every vote he has taken so far. Because Scalia was himself a conservative, Gorsuch's appointment has essentially maintained the status quo balance in the Supreme Court. However, a second conservative appointee under Trump would certainly shift the court to the right.

Because Kennedy was so instrumental in legalizing same-sex marriage, many are concerned a more conservative Supreme Court could review and attempt to repeal this decision. Such overruling of previous decisions has been an extremely rare occurrence in the past and would also go against public opinion: 64 percent of Americans currently support gay marriage. While the Republican party has proven that it is not afraid to push unpopular ideas, it's unlikely that even a far-right-leaning Supreme Court would go down such a road.

However, this does not mean that gay rights and other individual rights could not be restricted in different ways. The court's recent ruling on a case touching upon religious freedom and civil rights is a prime example of how this has already happened. The case was an appeal from a Colorado baker who claimed he had the right to refuse to create wedding cakes for same-sex couples based on his faith. The court ruled in favor of the baker — who had lost a previous discrimination lawsuit — effectively setting a precedent that will allow businesses to discriminate based on sexual orientation.

This same ruling could also potentially open the door to other cases based on religious freedom making it to the Supreme Court. Some hypotheticals: companies claiming the right to deny contraceptive coverage or to choose not to hire women who have had abortions or take the pill. Trump has boasted that, if given the chance, he would appoint pro-life judges who would repeal Roe v. Wade. While that extreme outcome may be unlikely, consider cases like last year's Whole Woman's Health v. Hellerstedt, which dealt with restrictions in Texas that held abortion clinics to unreasonable standards, essentially ensuring that women could not access the procedure. The court ruled against the Texas restrictions in a victory for women's rights. A court with a conservative tilt could very well vote the other way on future cases, eroding reproductive rights and seriously undermining Roe v. Wade.

In other words, Kennedy's retirement could have ripple effects on the American social and political landscape for decades to come.

This story was updated from its original version on June 27 to reflect the news of Kennedy's retirement.