All the Theories About Toby's Arc on This Is Us Season 3

Published on Sep 26, 2018 at 12:45 PM

The season three premiere of This Is Us was full of emotional moments and new information about some of the big mysteries still hanging over the series. Although the biggest question mark is still the identity of the mysterious "her" that Randall and Tess are visiting, the Sept. 25 episode left us with questions about another character, too: Toby.

To recap: during the present-day section of the episode, Kate and Toby explore their options and hope to pursue IVF, but they're stopped in their tracks when a doctor explains that their mutual health complications make them too big of a risk to take on as patients. But when the doctor finally agrees to work with them, Toby secretly flushes his antidepressants — and in the flash-forward, it looks like that decision came back to haunt him. This Is Us definitely has a knack for unexpected twists and turns on the way to solving its mysteries, but until then, here are some of the top theories about what's in store for Toby this season.

Toby's Depression Returns

This one seems like a no-brainer: flushing meds in the present + appearing weary and alone in the future = Toby relapsing. A trailer clip also shows Toby reading a medical pamphlet about antidepressant withdrawal symptoms. Going off antidepressants without a doctor's advice and without a slow withdrawal plan is about as bad a decision as a patient can make, so there's definitely going to be consequences in future episodes. We know already that the ending of his first marriage sent Toby into a depression, which leads us to our next theory . . .

Toby and Kate's Marriage Is on the Rocks

Toby and Kate's marriage may not be in a great place by the time the series reaches its flash-forward part of the timeline. Fertility challenges and mental health aren't easy on any relationship, and we know already that both of those are in store for the pair. The final moments of the season premiere, however, seem to include the most telling clues about the future of their marriage. When Toby gets a call from Randall to visit "her," he's seen alone in bed and not wearing a wedding ring — probably not a great sign for the couple.

Toby Is Connected to the "Her" Mystery

The flash-forward storyline, up 'til now, only featured two characters: an adult Tess and an older Randall, who are hesitantly going to visit an as-yet-unnamed "her." But in the season three premiere, Toby gets drawn into this storyline too, when Randall calls him and asks if he's coming to visit "her," too.

"She wants you to be there," Randall tells a hesitant Toby over the phone. This seems to suggest that Toby's arc this season is somehow tied to whoever "she" is — and that they are (or were) close enough that she would want to see him. Is "she" Kate, perhaps, or Rebecca? Or is it possible that the "she" Randall and Tess are visiting is separate from the "she" Randall is talking about to Toby? Either way, the "her" mystery is definitely connected to Toby's storyline now.

Toby Gets What He Wants — Sort Of

Toby's decision to dump his meds was directly linked to his desire to be a dad — so what if that actually does come true? It's definitely still a theory in progress, but since we know Toby is linked to the "her" mystery (and that This Is Us likes to subvert expectations), is it possible that "her" is not Kate or Beth or Rebecca, but a daughter of Kate and Toby? If this is the case, then something still goes horribly wrong along the way, given how sad Toby is in the flash-forward. There's not much evidence one way or another on this theory yet, but it's a theory to keep an eye on for sure.