Why He's Guilty: Don't forget, Toby was on the "A" team for a little bit. Could he be holding some sort of leftover grudge against the squad? Is he bitter that everyone left him behind in Rosewood? It's entirely possible.
Why He's Innocent: Toby really doesn't seem to fit the bill. He's still an officer at Rosewood PD, and he's very focused on locking down his girlfriend and building her a house. It's pretty clear he's moved on.