Why he might be dead: The biggest factor would be that, just like Rick and Carl, he's one of the characters kneeling in front of Negan in the last scene. Since he's not a huge asset to the show (no offense, Aaron), it also wouldn't really be a big deal if the writers killed him off.
Why he might not be dead: Conversely, his small role in Alexandria and in the TV show might be exactly what saves Aaron from a tragic death, since creator Robert Kirkman confirmed that whoever dies will be "beloved to everyone." Again, no offense, Aaron (he's also not kneeling on Rick's right, eliminating him from that theory).