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At the start of episode six, Hector said of the death, "To be honest, I feel responsible for his death," which seemingly implies that Karl is going to succumb to HIV. But again, that feels like a misdirection.
Unfortunately, our theory about Naomi (Katie Finneran) killing Simone when she finds out Simone is sleeping with her son, Tommy (Leo Howard), goes right out the window with the use of "his" death. Also, in the shot of Hector at the cemetery, Simone's daughter Amy (Li Jun Li) and her fiance Brad (Charlie DePew) were at the gravesite. So who would they be grieving?
So try this on for size: Simone's first husband, Amy's father, comes to town for Amy's wedding. When he finds out about Simone's extra curricular activities with Tommy and Karl's illness, he becomes violent and Simone kills him to protect herself. Now, why does Hector feel responsible? Maybe he's the one who lets the cat out of the bag to Simone's ex about her affair with Tommy?