Who's Going to Win This Year's Oscars? Our Predictions

Frances McDormand has swept every other award show thus far for her role as a badass mother in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, nabbing the Golden Globe, the Critics' Choice Award, and the SAG Award, and it's clear that she's a shoo-in for the Oscar. The only other nominee who's even close to taking it from McDormand would be Saoirse Ronan, who won the Golden Globe for best actress in a comedy, but that would be a huge surprise, and Academy voters don't tend to produce many surprises. Five-time nominee McDormand will most likely be going home with her second Oscar.

Like McDormand, Oldman has been sweeping every single show for playing Winston Churchill. We're still rooting for Call Me by Your Name's young upstart Timothée Chalamet, but it's looking like no one will be able to beat Oldman — not even Oscars heavyweight Daniel Day-Lewis.

Again, no one else has been able to best Janney at any other award show for her wicked turn as LaVona Golden, Tonya Harding's mother, in I, Tonya. And for good reason — after an entire career of incredible acting, Janney is finally getting her due, which we're certain includes an Oscar.

Are you sensing a pattern? Sam Rockwell has also won every award he's been nominated for this award season, and even though he's going up against his Three Billboards costar Woody Harrelson at the Oscars, it's going to Rockwell, all the way.

The one place the Academy did shake things up this year was in the best director nominees, including Greta Gerwig, only the fifth woman the be nominated ever, and Jordan Peele, the fifth black director to be nominated. In fact, aside from Paul Thomas Anderson, all of this year's best director nominees are first-timers to the category, but Gerwig is most deserving of this honor. Lady Bird was also her first time directing a feature film, and the product — a sensitive, funny, dramatic film with deeply real characters — speaks volumes about her massive talent.

While Call Me by Your Name has been going home with depressingly few awards this season, it still has a very strong shot at this category. James Ivory has won the Critics' Choice award for his adaptation of André Aciman's gorgeous book, and we think the Oscars will award the romantic film this consolation.

Jordan Peele's Get Out has to win something — the zeitgeisty movie has sustained warranted buzz for an entire year and means so much more to people than some of the other films on the list. The horror film doesn't have much of a shot in the bigger categories it's in (though best picture would be the amazing surprise of the century), but best original screenplay, awarding Peele's writing and sharp use of dialogue and satire, is the most fitting — and likely — win.